ATP45

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Here, the naval shipyards at Everett and Bremerton, the submarine base and strategic nuclear depot at Bangor, and Joint Base Lewis-McChord are each hit with a 300 kiloton warhead.

ATP-45 Nuclear Fallout Predictor simulating the world's very first nuclear device, the "Gadget" Trinity test. At 19 Kilotons, it was detonated at the Trinity test site at 5:29 a.m. on July 16, 1945, on what is now the grounds of White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico.

ATP-45 Fallout Predictor Initial Startup

The Trinity test "Gadget" fireball at 16 milliseconds after initiation. The fireball is 200 meters tall at this point.

All the information needed for a chemical or radiological defense officer to make an acetate overlay for a paper map may be found here, including weapon coordinates, yield, cloud parameters, effective downwind speed and direction, and more.

App details

Release date

2018-07-26

Last update

2022-03-12

Product ID

9PJ9F4J5VPVB

About ATP45

The NATO ATP-45(D) Nuclear Fallout Predictor combines real-time upper air wind forecasts from the United States National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) with calculated fallout and damage effects from surface-burst nuclear bomb detonations using methods from NATO Allied Technical Publication 45. The resulting fallout prediction plots are like those used by US and Allied forces for pre-strike military maneuver and post-strike radiation survey planning in the event of nuclear war.

When made by hand during military field operations, these fallout predictions can take up to an hour to produce and rely on meteorological data from military channels. Here, we combine civilian upper-air wind forecasts from NOAA, which are updated and published every six hours, with known weapon yields and standard mathematical models developed from nuclear atmospheric testing done in the 1950s and 1960s which are still used today.

While blast damage area predictions are consistent worldwide, fallout predictions are only valid within the Continental United States (CONUS), including any area within 100 nautical miles of the CONUS border. This is because real-time NOAA wind data is only available within this area. Fallout patterns outside this area will use wind forecasts from the closest US weather station, which may be thousands of miles from the target, and thus will only provide a notional pattern which may not fit the actual target weather conditions.

This software was produced by a former officer of the US Army Chemical Corps, the primary military agency responsible for radiological defense, and an accomplished software engineer. Running on Windows 10, this provides you with similar planning capability to that of US and Allied military forces.

This software is unclassified and available to the public at large. While data and mathematical models are derived from unclassified US government sources, this software is in no way affiliated with any government agency and no endorsement of any official agency or company is expressed or implied.

Using this software requires the latest version of Windows 10 and an Internet connection.

Key features

Pre-defined US and generic nuclear weapon types, including historical weapons like Gadget, Fat Man, Little Boy, and Tsar Bomba
Enter Custom Weapon Yields up to 50,000 kilotons for what-if analysis
Real-time upper-air wind layer data from NOAA changes every 6 hours
Includes NUKEMAP Fallout Predictor by Alex Wellerstein
CONUS Surface Wind Map
The video “Radiological Defense”, from the former Office of Civil and Defense Mobilization
Relevant chapters from NATO Allied Technical Publication 45, explaining the detailed procedures used in the ATP-45 Fallout Predictor software.
Uses ATP-45 Fixed Angle and Variable Angle Wind Models
Operating instructions at ATP45.com